2014 Statistics
64.1 IP/1.96 ERA/3.99 FIP/5.04 SO9/2.66 BB9
2015 ZiPS Projections
3.58 ERA/4.02 FIP/6.06 SO9/3.03 BB9
Why the Ranking?
Hughes played pretty far over his head last year, but combining the Pirates defensive shifts and his high ground ball rate, it is not that shocking of a gap considering the small sample size. Would I bet on him having a sub-2 ERA ever again in MLB, of course not. Fortunately for the Pirates, that's not what they need from Jared Hughes. They would be more than happy with the projections that see him as a mid-3 ERA guy.
At this point in his career, everyone knows what they will be getting from Hughes, and that is a more than serviceable middle reliever. While he does not strike many batter out, his sinker has been a great tool to overcome that deficiency. Last season he had a ground ball rate of 64.6% and was able to get double plays in 21% of his opportunities. That is almost twice the major league average.
Hughes will see most of his action in the middle innings, almost always in short relief situations. When the Pirates need a double play, he will be the first guy to come off the bench. Really, it is a weapon that all thirty teams want in their bullpen and Hughes is one of the better guys doing that job. Unfortunately, it is a job where no one truly notices unless you fail and can easily be forgotten if you succeed.
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